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中国与美国:21世纪的冷战?

虽然中国仍然是全球芯片产业的核心,但IC设计全天候运作的半导体制造业的跨境性质,晶圆出货圈以及整合供应链可能对其他成员有所帮助当前美中关税战的影响。

Nevertheless, the damage done and the two sides irreconcilable, a permanent trade war would be the 21st century equivalent of the Cold War competition between the US and the Soviet Union. In that contest, the US simply outspent the Russians. It's not clear if the same strategy would work against Chinese leaders willing to invest billions on wafer fabs, only to close them a few years later.从来没有这样做,造成的损害和双方不可遏制,永久战争将是21世纪相当于美苏之间的冷战竞争,美国只是超过了俄罗斯人。同样的战略可能会对愿意在晶圆厂投资数十亿美元的中国领导人采取行动,但仅在几年后关闭他们。

Investors sensed the reckoning in recent days, heading for the exits after China responded in kind to the Trump administration's tariff increases on $200 billion in Chinese-made products. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index dropped 4.73% on May 13 after Beijing responded with tariffs on $60 billion in US goods. (By week's end, the chip index had made up part of that loss.)投资者感受到最近几天的清算,在中国对中国产品2000亿美元的关税增长作出特别回应之后出口退出。菲律宾半导体指数在北京回应后于5月13日下跌4.73%。美国商品。(截至周末,芯片指数弥补了这一损失。)

'The soft approach hasn't worked' '软方法没有奏效'
Fueling the uncertainty is the suspicion that hardline US trade advisors ultimately seek to undo the commercial links between the US and China, the so-called “decoupling” of trade between the world's two largest economies. That commerce is largely driven by technology.这种担忧是强硬派美国贸易顾问最终寻求消除美中之间的商业联系,即所谓的世界两大经济体之间的贸易“脱钩”。

“We've tried the soft approach for 40 years and it hasn't worked,” said James Lewis of the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) and author of a recent report on China's chip ambitions. “The Chinese

will just blow you off if they think you're not serious.” “中国[领导层]”我们已经尝试了40年的软式方法,但它没有奏效,“战略与国际研究中心(CSIS)的詹姆斯说。如果他们认为你不认真,他们会把你吹走。“

Lewis notes that stories of China strong-arming US tech companies have long made the rounds in Washington, fueling a consensus in Congress that Chinese powerhouses like Huawei should be banned from the American market. The race to deploy 5G networks and Huawei's first-mover advantage have further hardened that stance, with lawmakers now convinced that US allies must choose sides when deploying emerging technologies like 5G wireless.事实上,中国市场在美国有着悠久的发展历史,美国有大量的美国科技公司已经在华盛顿进行了这一轮谈判,加剧了像华为这样的中国强国的共识应该被禁止进入美国市场。立法者现在确信美国盟友在部署5G无线等新兴技术时必须选择双方,这进一步巩固了这一立场。

Meanwhile, established technology segments are also suffering as a result of trade tensions and a slowing Chinese economy. For example, industry analysts cite geopolitical events as one factor suppressing the previously booming microcontroller segment. China is the world's largest MCU market, but “tariff-and-trade battles between the United States and mainland China have added to uncertainty in the market,” IHS Markit reported in mid-May.例如,行业分析师将地缘政治事件列为贸易和/或中国经济放缓的结果。平均微观电路激增。 IHS Markit在5月中旬报道,我在美国和中国大陆之间的交易增加了市场的不确定性。

Hence, the industry tracker is forecasting zero growth in MCU demand over the next year.因此,业界追踪者预测明年MCU需求将实现零增长。

That pessimism also reflects heavy chipmaker reliance on Chinese assembly networks. So, too, do consumer electronics giants like Apple and Dell. The iPhone maker and server vendor each saw their stock drop by more than 4% in response to growing trade tensions.同样,像苹果和戴尔这样的电子电子产品巨头也是如此。为了应对不断加剧的贸易紧张局势,iPhone制造商和服务器供应商看到每只股票下跌超过4%。

Computers and electronics constitute the lion's share of US imports of Chinese products, accounting for an estimated $186.5 billion of the $539 billion in goods and services imported from China in 2018, according to US trade figures. US technology exports to China totaled $17.9 billion last year. Among them are Intel processors manufactured at its fabs in Hillsboro, Oregon, where it recently announced expansion plans.截至今年年底,美国向中国出口的技术总额为179亿日元,其中计算机和电子产品占美国进口中国产品的比例最大,占2018年从中国进口的5390亿美元商品和服务中的1865亿美元,与美国贸易数据相对应。其中包括在俄勒冈州希尔斯伯勒的工厂生产的英特尔处理器,该处理器最近宣布了公告计划。

That huge trade deficit is among the political forces driving the current US-China trade war.这场巨大的贸易是推动当前美中贸易战的政治力量。

While China is a leading exporter of finished electronic products, it remains a net importer of chip technology as it seeks to move up the technology value chain. According to the CSIS report, only about 16% of semiconductors used domestically are produced in China. Beijing's aspirational goal is to produce 70% of the chips that it uses by 2025.虽然中国是电子产品的主要出口国,但它仍然是芯片技术进口的网络,因为它寻求提升技术价值链。理想的目标是到2025年生产70%的芯片。

China's aggressive stance toward US chipmakers seeking access to its huge market has heightened current trade frictions. “Part of China's exploitative trade policy is to squeeze US semiconductors out of the China market while sucking Western semiconductor technology in,” Lewis noted. “There should be no doubt as to which outcome is best for the United States.”中国对美国芯片制造商以高流动摩擦进入巨大市场的积极态度“半导体”是中国爆发性权衡的一部分。毫无疑问,哪种结果最适合美国。“

The Semiconductor Industry Association estimates that the Chinese market accounts for as much as 35% of global sales. With more electronics assembled there, “China is central, if not absolutely critical, to both the market and the supply chain,” said Jimmy Goodrich, SIA's vice president of global policy.随着更多电子产品的组装,“中国对市场和供应链来说都是核心,如果不是绝对关键,”吉米古德里奇说, SIA的全球政策副总裁。



Trade stalemate splits the world's economies 贸易僵局分裂了世界经济
The overriding concern is that a trade stalemate would effectively separate the world's two largest economies, a scenario for which neither side has a template. Such a split means that US trading partners would eventually have to decide, for example, whether to buy 5G wireless chips from Qualcomm or Huawei.这样的一部分是有效分离的世界上最大的两个经济体,双方都有模板的场景。来自高通或华为。

The Trump administration tightened the screws on May 15 with an executive order effectively banning Huawei from the US telecommunications market. The sanctions also block Huawei's access to US technologies, including systems that incorporate components made in the US Huawei is thought to source as much as 20% of its components from US suppliers, including processors deemed “critical to Huawei's product offerings,” according to international trade attorney Lawrence Ward.特朗普政府于5月15日收紧了螺丝,行政命令有效地禁止华为进入美国电信市场。制裁也阻碍华为获取美国技术,包括嵌入开路的系统组件据国际贸易律师劳伦斯·沃德(Lawrence Ward)称,其成分来自美国供应商,包括被视为“对华为产品提供关键”的处理器。

Global chip suppliers, too, are under pressure to choose sides. German chipmaker Infineon Technologies, for example, confirmed a report by Nikkei that it has suspended shipments to Huawei of products that it makes in the US in compliance with tightened export rules announced last week by the Trump administration.例如,德国芯片制造商英飞凌科技(Infineon Technologies)证实, 日经指数称,由于全球芯片供应商的紧张局面,全球芯片供应商面临选择方面的压力,该公司暂停向华为出口其在美国生产的产品。特朗普政府。

There's little doubt that some in the Trump administration wish to sever trade ties with China after 40 years of economic integration. “But it won't be easy,” notes Lewis, who suspects that we may end up with a “de facto decoupling.” President Xi Jinping has economic problems, and China is more vulnerable on technology trade because US electronics companies possess what China wants. “但这并不容易,”刘易斯指出,他怀疑我们最终可能会“事实上脱钩”。在经济一体化40年之后,对中国的特朗普政府中有些人有一点怀疑。 “习近平主席遇到经济问题,中国在技术贸易上更加脆弱,因为美国电子公司拥有中国想要的东西。

“We're in a game of chicken, [but] neither side wants a head-on collision,” Lewis added. Reflecting the uncertainty on both sides and the prospect that an early-morning tweet from a protectionist US president could scuttle a face-saving compromise, Lewis concludes, “I have no idea how this will end.”反映双方的不确定性以及美国保护主义总统凌晨发布的推文可能会破坏鸡的保护,[但]双方都不希望正面碰撞,“刘易斯补充说。刘易斯隐瞒了这个妥协,“我不知道这将如何结束。”

· 2019-05-22 21:12  本新闻来源自:EETIMES,版权归原创方所有

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