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5G设备细分驱动策略

5G设备细分驱动策略| EE Times 一位经验丰富的半导体分析师表示,5G智能手机市场应该由三个截然不同的细分市场进行分析。

About a dozen market research forecasts predict the number of 5G smartphones will range between half and one billion units by 2023, rising faster than the adoption rate of 4G LTE smartphones.大约十二个市场研究预测预测,到2023年,5G智能手机的数量将在半数到10亿个之间,增长速度超过4G LTE智能手机的采用率。 However, 5G devces are best seen segmented into three main segments.然而,最好看到5G devces分为三个主要部分。

In the next three-to-five years, the main segment will be for sub-6 GHz handsets, representing an evolution of the 4G telecom standard.在未来三到五年内,主要部分将用于低于6 GHz的手机,代表了4G电信标准的演变。 Early high volumes will be in the new 3.5-4.5 GHz frequency range.早期的高容量将在新的3.5-4.5 GHz频率范围内。

Sub-6GHz 5G technology is critical since it adds a large frequency spectrum with wide bandwidth to the current heavily saturated 4G and 3G cellular bands, mainly concentrated below the 2.1-GHz frequency.低于6GHz的5G技术至关重要,因为它为当前严重饱和的4G和3G蜂窝频段增加了宽带宽的大频谱,主要集中在2.1GHz频率以下。 Interestingly, the current 4G technology will continue to evolve and complement sub-6GHz 5G for a variety of reasons I won't discuss here.有趣的是,目前的4G技术将继续发展并补充低于6GHz的5G,原因有很多,我在此不再讨论。

A second, moredisruptive and revolutionary segment is in millimeter wave (mmwave) 5G, at present mostly at 28 and 39 GHz.第二个更具破坏性和革命性的部分是毫米波(mmwave)5G,目前主要是28和39 GHz。 The 5G mmwave capability in smartphones will be added on top of sub-6-GHz 5G.智能手机中的5G mmwave功能将添加到6GHz以下的5G之上。 By the year 2025, only a third of 5G smartphones will likely have mmwave capability, giving components for the sub-6 segment a 3:1 edge.到2025年,只有三分之一的5G智能手机可能具有mmwave功能,从而为6分段提供3:1的优势。

Handsets supporting mmwave bands will only make up a third of 5G smartphones by 2025.Click to enlarge.到2025年,支持mmwave频段的手机将只占5G智能手机的三分之一。点击放大。(Source: Petrov Group)(来源:彼得罗夫集团)

A separate 5G IoT segment addresses data transfer from a very large number of end devices at below gigahertz frequencies.单独的5G IoT段解决了来自大量低于千兆赫兹频率的终端设备的数据传输。 The standards and protocols for 5G IoT are not defined yet, in part because initial optimistic expectations of cellular IoT in 4G have not been met despite big efforts, especially in China. 5G IoT的标准和协议尚未定义,部分原因是尽管做出了巨大努力,特别是在中国,对4G中蜂窝物联网的初步乐观预期尚未得到满足。

It's important to note that in the next few years many smartphones will claim to have 5G capabilities that a network operator can enable with a simple software upgrade of its network.值得注意的是,在未来几年内,许多智能手机将拥有5G功能,网络运营商可通过简单的网络软件升级实现这些功能。 However, the sub-6-GHz and mmwave segments are distinct and significant for several reasons, including regional differences, potential for supply chain disruption and for positioning of smartphone and infrastructure vendors.然而,由于若干原因,包括区域差异,供应链中断的可能性以及智能手机和基础设施供应商的定位,6 GHz以下和mmwave分段具有独特性和重要性。

In the near term mmwave 5G is important primarily in the US market, as well as in the much smaller Japan and South Korea markets.在短期内,mmwave 5G主要在美国市场以及规模小得多的日本和韩国市场中占有重要地位。 It is aggressively promoted by network operators who pushed for municipal installation permits for base stations in a less time consuming and less expensive manner.它由网络运营商积极推动,他们以更少的时间和更便宜的方式推动基站的市政安装许可。

Actual use cases for mmwave 5G are somewhat unconvincing and uncertain due to cost and performance challenges.由于成本和性能方面的挑战,mmwave 5G的实际使用情况有些令人难以置信且不确定。 The much larger sub-6GHz market is expected to blossom in Asia, mostly in China.预计亚洲6GHz以上的市场将大幅增长,主要是在中国。 Thus, it could be dominated by Huawei's wireless infrastructure equipment.因此,它可能由华为的无线基础设施设备主导。

The two segments are significantly different in their likely effect on supply chains in RF front end (RFFE) modules.这两个部分在RF前端(RFFE)模块中对供应链的可能影响方面存在显着差异。 The sub-6GHz segment likely will extend the current dominance of RFFE module vendors Broadcom, Skyworks, Qorvo, Murata and the more recent fabless entrant, Qualcomm.低于6GHz的市场可能会扩大目前RFFE模块供应商Broadcom,Skyworks,Qorvo,Murata以及最近的无晶圆厂进入者高通公司的主导地位。

The mmwave segment brings challenges in cost, low power, new materials, packaging, and testing. mmwave部分带来了成本,低功耗,新材料,封装和测试方面的挑战。 In particular, mmwave transmitters need to be very close to antenna arrays, preferably in the same system-in-package.特别是,mmwave发射器需要非常靠近天线阵列,最好是在相同的系统级封装中。 Thus, they are likely to disrupt the established supply chain, giving an advantage to modem suppliers such as Qualcomm, Samsung, HiSilicon, MediaTek, and Unisoc.因此,它们可能会扰乱已建立的供应链,从而为高通,三星,海思,联发科和Unisoc等现代供应商带来优势。

Huawei/HiSilicon is effectively prevented from competing in the US 5G market today.今天,华为/海思半导体有效地无法在美国5G市场上竞争。 That's giving Samsung a big incentive to compete in 5G segments against Apple and its supplier Qualcomm.这给三星带来了激励与苹果及其供应商高通公司竞争5G领域的巨大动力。

A high priority for Samsung is to build up its volumes in foundry wafers as well as IC packages (note its investments in panel-level fan-out capability) in order to compete against TSMC.三星的一个高优先级是建立其代工晶圆和IC封装的数量(注意其在面板级扇出能力方面的投资),以便与台积电竞争。 Samsung already has reclassified support of its smartphone group as part of its foundry business.作为其代工业务的一部分,三星已经重新分类其智能手机组的支持。

Samsung also stated a goal to become the third largest global supplier of wireless infrastructure equipment.三星还宣布了成为全球第三大无线基础设施供应商的目标。 In the next few years, it will be very active in achieving its corporate strategy goals.在未来几年,它将非常积极地实现其企业战略目标。

Overall, market segmentation for 5G smartphones will continue to evolve.总体而言,5G智能手机的市场细分将继续发展。 And 5G has major implications beyond smartphones for a large number of other markets and industries.对于许多其他市场和行业而言,5G在智能手机之外具有重大意义。

--Boris Petrov is managing partner of the Petrov Group . --Boris Petrov是Petrov集团的管理合伙人。 He spent the last ten years leading market intelligence and strategic marketing at the SCL/JCET group and previously held positions at Intel, Zilog, Siemens, McKinsey, Boston Consulting, and Booz-Allen. 他在SCL / JCET集团担任领导市场情报和战略营销的最近十年,此前曾在英特尔,Zilog,西门子,麦肯锡,波士顿咨询公司和Booz-Allen担任过职务。

· 2019-05-01 22:44  本新闻来源自:eetimes,版权归原创方所有

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